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A new report from US Weekly says Tom Cruise spent his 50th birthday in route from Iceland back to California. It was originally his plan to have Katie Holmes by his side as he thrust his fist into the air and celebrated his big day. But Katie, as we all know, dropped the bomb on him. An insider tells the new issue of Us Weekly that Cruise had been planning his own “surprise” birthday bash to be held Tuesday. (He had paid thousands of extras and Scientologists to stand outside his hotel with signs and glow sticks). While Holmes, 33, had been noticeably absent from Rock of Ages premieres and a recent Friars Club roast, “he begged her to come to Iceland for one last try at reconciliation,” the insider says. (She couldn’t remove the straitjacket snaps).

Holmes — secretly plotting to file for divorce and move into her own rented NYC apartment — refused, and the pair had a “huge fight,” the source explains. (He was still PISSED she was using his moisturizer and she was sick of wearing flats for photo opportunities). Although Cruise was aware that things were tense and severely estranged with Holmes (she had already moved her things out of the prison cell he had built for her), “he was confident he could talk her out of it and keep her with him,” the source says (or he would just give her a some “happy pills”). Holmes, as you know, filed for divorce last Thursday, and seeks sole legal custody of daughter Suri, 6.

Last time Tom got divorced he was still a very private movie star. He was admired by colleagues and an international audience. Few people talked about Scientology. Then he fired his esteemed publicist and hired his sister. He had his church interview potential wife candidates. He jumped on Oprah’s couch. He told Brooke Shields she needed to take vitamins to stave off her depression. He became unglued. Now he’s 50 and rocking a fresh face-lift. His last movie role had him gyrating and singing autotune love ballads while wearing eyeliner and cowboy hats.

And while he was busy making church devotional videos and trying to move ashtrays with his mind his robo-wife plotted her escape. And suddenly the lady he made keep quiet for the last six years has stood up and demanded her own life back. She hired back her old publicist. Fired her bodyguards and got herself a legal dream team. And everyone is routing for her. The general public is making sure no one kidnaps her daughter, that she can speak her own mind, and she doesn’t have to drink barley water or hook herself up to a makeshift lie detector again.

How should he play this? He should grant her the divorce, say they drifted apart because of work commitments, praise her as a mother publicly, and then lay low for at least a year. He should find a script that is a little more A Few Good Men and a little less Dream Girls. But he won’t do this. He believes he is capable of turning this whole thing around and he will play hardball behind closed doors. What should Katie do? Grant one interview with Diane Sawyer. She doesn’t have to say much. She should just say that she appreciates everyone’s support and good wishes. She should say that she is very happy to be working on work projects that she feels passionately about and that she looks forward to spending time with Suri, her family, and her friends – old and new. Then she should attend the Met Ball and the Oscars and the a few other choice charity balls.

But it is my hope that her pre-nup and/or divorce settlement allows her to speak at some point about the last seven years. If anything I would like to see someone make a movie loosely based on this part of her life. I am happy to write the screenplay or at the very least play Xenu.

-Kate Casey

Kate Casey is a Pop Culture Lover. PR Pro. New mom. Comedy nerd. Celebrity gossip fan. Follow her on Twitter